Last year, my advice was to ignore early Black Friday deals. This made sense at the time, given economic conditions—in 2022, many retailers were overstocked due to slower spending by consumers amid an inflation-battered year and retailers looking to offload their excess supply with gradually more aggressive deals as the post-Thanksgiving period neared. However, this year is very different. In 2023, you should be shopping early Black Friday deals. You also need to have a plan in place so you don’t get duped into overpaying. Here’s why.
Everyone is starting Black Friday early this year
While early Black Friday deals are nothing new, this year, everyone is getting in on the action, and they are starting even earlier. “Everything is moving earlier...Prime Day in October, that’s become the start of Black Friday shopping and holiday season,” said Mathew Isaac, professor of marketing at Albers School of Business at Seattle University.
According to Dr. Isaac, Black Friday shopping is a lot more fluid now; it’s less about a single day and instead about retailers trying to tee off the entire holiday season. This strategy also allows them to avoid risk by not banking too hard on having blockbuster sales on Black Friday itself—traditionally both the busiest and nosiest shopping day of the year.
Inventory and inflation are no longer driving factors
While nobody is saying inflation has gone away, it isn’t expected to dictate the Black Friday market like it did last year—nor will inventory issues play a significant role. And as Isaac noted, last year produced record-high Black Friday numbers, even despite high inflation. Given that, “I expect to see pretty healthy retail sales especially as you talk about the entire holiday season,” he said.
As for inventory concerns, Isaac said whether or not it will be a significant factor will depend a lot on the specific product category, but generally, supply will not be the driving force when it comes to Black Friday pricing and promotions. “We should see a lot of early good deals that will not be inventory-driven,” he said.
The best holiday shopping strategy for 2023
Because there is no longer a glut of inventory and sales are starting earlier, there’s more of a chance that stock will not last throughout the shopping season for pin-demand products, so buying early is your best strategy if you want to score a deal. If you see a good discount in an early Black Friday sale, don’t assume it will be a precursor to a better deal in late November. The chances are decent that the stock will run out.
Take advantage of early access deals
Beyond shopping the sales, Isaac recommends taking advantage of any early access deals you can. Store loyalty programs or the ability to access sales via your credit card perks, for example, can be a great way to take advantage of the best deals earlier in the season. Some retailers, including Best Buy, already had their early access sales with record low prices, but you’ll likely see other retailers follow suit as the holiday shopping season rolls on.
Electronics may see the biggest discounts this year
What products might be an especially good buy this year? Isaac said we probably won’t see much variation from other years in terms of overall promotions but that it’s worth keeping a close eye on prices for any big-ticket electronics on your shopping list. Products like computers, TVs, and appliances should see the heaviest discounts, he said.
Don’t bother waiting for Cyber Monday
Given the fluidity that will be present throughout the shopping season, there likely won’t be much distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales this year, Isaac said. “I think it will be pretty similar in terms of the types of promotions that are available, because it isn’t just one day anymore,” he added. “So it doesn’t make sense for them to offer the traditional door busters...that [sought] to get people into the stores. It’s really about maximizing across all channels, online and offline.”