Awards aren't everything, true, but keeping an eye on the big film prizes of the year can open our eyes to movies that we might have missed out on—while we're debating which of the big box office blockbusters actually deserve to win awards. This year's Gotham Independent Film Awards were held at the end of November, and they're typically seen as the kick-off to an awards season that ends with the big finale that is the Academy Awards ceremony, to be held on Mar. 10 of 2024.
If you're the type of movie dork who likes to have seen as many Oscar nominees as possible by the time those ceremonies come around (don't worry: You're among friends here), consider this list an early set of predictions. If you're just looking for reminders of some of the year's best, or at least most interesting, movies, look no further.
Barbie
Greta Gerwig's unlikely cultural phenomenon has already won the big prize: It's the year's top box office winner, having scored nearly $1.5 billion (so far). The movie's soundtrack has dominated the Grammy nominations, and it would be a little shocking if the movie doesn't pick up Best Picture and Best Director nominations at Oscar time, as well as nods for Margot Robbie as Best Actress and Ryan Gosling for Supporting Actor. It's still very much a Barbie world.
Where to watch: Digital rental
Past Lives
This restrained romantic drama feels a bit out of place in a year full of so many heavy hitters, but the lovely, moving story of a relationship over the course of decades is brilliantly acted and directed, both timely and timeless. It won Best Feature at the Gotham Awards, with a nomination for director Celine Song and another for lead Greta Lee. I'd be very surprised if the movie doesn't pick up some momentum toward further nominations.
Where to watch: Digital rental
Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer went up against Barbie at the box office this summer and, somehow, they both came out winners. That's less likely during an awards season that may well see the two go head-to-head for several major awards. Technical awards nominations are almost a certainty here, with Best Picture and Best Director Oscar nominations pretty likely. Cillian Murphy has a good shot at a Best Actor nod, and Robert Downey Jr. could be in line for a Supporting Actor nomination.
Where to watch: Digital rental
Elemental
Though the reviews were quite good, the movie stumbled out of the box office gate, at least compared to previous Disney/Pixar productions. The movie had solid legs, though, and gave Disney+ its best streaming premiere numbers of the year. None of that should matter when it comes to awards, of course, but a movie that seemed like it was out of the conversation came roaring back. It's almost a lock for a Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination, if nothing else.
Where to watch: Disney+
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Though it's an awful lot of fun, and a fitting sendoff for Harrison Ford's Indy, Dial probably won't get much awards-season love, except for its score, from legendary composer John Williams. The composer, who'll be 92 at the time the Oscars are given out, has dozens of nominations under his belt, but hasn't taken home an Academy award since 1994.
Where to watch: Disney+
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American Symphony
Director Matthew Heineman's film follows a year in the lives of writer Suleika Jaouad and her husband, musician Jon Baptiste, during which she confronts a recurrence of a rare form of leukemia while he constructs his first symphony. It's a moving film that goes beyond the obvious tropes to make the case that there are things that only music can say. A good bet for Best Documentary nod.
Where to watch: Netflix
Beau is Afraid
One of the year's wildest, most thoroughly polarizing films (see also: Saltburn) comes from Ari Aster, director of Hereditary and Midsommar. The film's production design is a highlight, as are the performances from lead Joaquin Phoenix—and, especially, potential Supporting Actress Patti LuPone, who stands out here. The controversy surrounding the movie (is it brilliant, completely exhausting, or both?) could hurt, or it could help—it'll be in the conversation, if nothing else.
Where to watch: Digital rental
May December
Todd Haynes directs this insightful and moving, but also deliberately campy, story of an actress visiting the woman whom she'll be playing in a film. Screenplay nominations are in play, as well as nods for the performances of Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman. Likewise, Charles Melton (fresh out of Riverdale) beat out names like Juliette Binoche, Jamie Foxx, Ryan Gosling, and Rachel McAdams to win Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Awards, so consider him a strong contender for further nominations.
Where to watch: Netflix
Little Richard: I Am Everything
The documentary about the iconoclastic music legend dives deep into the very queer, very Black origins of rock and roll. It could well pick up some major documentary awards.
Where to watch: Max
Air
Ben Affleck directs the surprisingly fascinating and emotional drama about the birth of the Air Jordans. Affleck also co-stars with Matt Damon, the two having a few Oscars under their belt, and Viola Davis has a small but pivotal role that could see her up for some supporting performer prizes.
Where to watch: Prime Video
Kokomo City
D. Smith's impressively optimistic portrait of a group of trans, Black sex workers has grown in profile after having picked up a couple of NEXT prizes at Sundance, and probably deserves to win more. A Best Documentary Feature Oscar nomination is certainly a possibility.
Where to watch: Digital rental
A Thousand and One
Teyana Taylor plays Inez, who kidnaps her own son from the New York City foster care system and fights, over time, to build her him a better life than she had. The radically humane and empathetic movie deserves some love from the major awards, if they're paying attention. Certainly Taylor could see a Best Actress nomination.
Where to watch: Prime Video
Asteroid City
Wes Anderson's latest is about as Wes Anderson as they come, with an all-star ensemble cast in the meta-story of a stargazer convention in 1955 done as a play, which we also witness the creation of. Production design and costume awards are very much in the cards, with slightly longer odds on nominations for picture and director (Wes Anderson is probably due, after all).
Where to watch: Peacock
Cassandro
It's probably a bit of a long shot, since I'm not sure that anybody's heard of it, but Gael García Bernal plays the title character, based on the real-life queer luchadore, and he's been getting nothing but praise for the performance.
Where to watch: Prime Video
Killers of the Flower Moon
Martin Scorsese's latest is a top contender for several top prizes come Oscar time: Best Picture and Best Director, most likely, as well as probable nominations for lead Leonardo DiCaprio and supporting performers Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro.
Where to watch: Digital rental
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
One of the few bright spots in Marvel's recent output (it's good, really!), it's likely to score some technical nominations.
Where to watch: Disney+
Dumb Money
The Big Short, but with GameStop set during the height of the Covid pandemic. Director Craig Gillespie's I, Tonya did pretty darn well at the Oscars a few years ago. Could definitely ear some nominations for its screenplay, if nothing else.
Where to watch: Digital rental
The Killer
David's Fincher's latest doesn't seem to have generated as much buzz as, say, Mank—but Fincher has picked up Oscar nominations for every movie he's made since 2008. A screenplay nomination, at least, isn't unlikely.
Where to watch: Netflix
Nyad
Annette Benning stars as the real-life Diana Nyad, who swam from Florida to Cuba in her 60s. The actress doesn't have any Oscars to her name, and this seems like as good a time as any to correct that. I'm guessing we'll see her pick up a Best Actress nomination, and there's a good chance that Jodie Foster might well have done enough to earn one for Supporting Actress. The movie seems to have built some buzz, so more nominations aren't at all out of the question.
Where to watch: Netflix
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The sequel to one of the best superhero movies pretty much ever is also very good! A Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination is almost guaranteed, and there are a couple of choices for Best Original Song.
Where to watch: Netflix
Rustin
Colman Domingo gives a stellar performance as the title's Bayard Rustin, the gay Civil Rights leader who planned the March on Washington. He's a very strong Best Actor candidate.
Where to watch: Netflix
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
The reviews have been fairly meh, but the Chris Pratt-led movie has been just behind Barbie in the year's box office. That may well be enough to earn it a Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination.
Where to watch: Netflix
Nimona
The charming and funny adaptation of ND Stevenson's graphic novel has a decent shot at picking up a Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination.
Where to watch: Netflix
80 for Brady
The movie's song, "Gonna Be You," is performed by Dolly Parton, Belinda Carlisle, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan and Debbie Harry. If Academy voters don't give it a nomination and make that live performance happen, I'll picket I swear to god.
Where to watch: Prime Video, Paramount+, MGM+
Saltburn
This completely whackadoo horror movie has been one of the most polarizing, and interesting, films of the year. Oscar voters will either love it or hate it, much like general audiences have. It could well pick up a nomination for its screenplay, but who knows? It might be a fun wild card.
Where to watch: In theaters
Anatomy of a Fall
The French thriller blends family drama with with elements of a very smart police procedural is brilliantly directed, and features an outstanding lead performance by Sandra Hüller as a woman trying to prove her innocence in the death of her husband. It took the top prize at Cannes this year (as well as the Palm Dog, given for best canine performance—really!); it also won Best Screenplay and Best International Feature at the Gotham Awards. The film wasn't submitted by France for a Best International Feature Oscar (perhaps because director Justine Triet used her Cannes speech to criticize the French president) but other awards are on the table, including a likely Best Actress Oscar nomination for Hüller.
Where to watch: In theaters
Maestro
Maestro, Bradley Cooper's directorial follow-up to the much-nominated A Star is Born, sounded like an awards-season no-brainer—but much of the discussion was dominated, early on, by the pros and cons of Cooper's prosthetic nose while portraying composer Leonard Bernstein. The reviews have been good, but not as good as for A Star is Born, and audience reaction has been cool. Still, there's a strong chance that Cooper will pick up some acting nominations, as will co-star Carey Mulligan. Other major awards are very possible, too, though not guaranteed.
Where to watch: In theaters
Priscilla
Sofia Coppola's Priscilla Presley biopic hasn't generated a ton of buzz, overall, but the performance of lead Cailee Spaeny has been pretty universally acclaimed. Director Coppola seems like she's due for another Best Director Oscar nomination (her first and most recent was for Lost in Translation 20 years ago), but that seems like a long shot this year.
Where to watch: In theaters
The Boy and the Heron
Hayao Miyazaki's latest (also called "How Do You Live?") is barely into wide release, and it's already won the New York Critics Circle's award for Best Animated Feature. The animator/director had planned to retire following 2013's The Wind Rises, but decided to return for a film that might be his swan song, or might represent a new beginning. Either way, he remains at the top of his form. Despite being universally acclaimed, the last time one of his films got major Oscar love was in 2003—though, of course, the Oscars aren't everything.
Where to watch: In theaters
Poor Things
A dark, but genuinely humane, fairy tale, finds Emma Stone's young Victorian Bella Baxter being resurrected following her suicide—with mixed results. Willem Dafoe co-stars, and it's directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, who picked up a ton of nominations for The Favourite, only to inexplicably lose a Best Picture Oscar to Green Book. It might be too weird for the Academy, but Emma Stone's performance, at least, might pick up a nomination.
Where to watch: In theaters
All of Us Strangers
Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal, and Claire Foy star in the latest from Andrew Haigh (Weekend, Looking, Lean on Pete) about a burgeoning relationship between neighbors that sees one of them revisiting his past and the suburban town he left behind. The British picture led nominations at this year's Gotham Awards, with nods for three of the movie's performers, its screenplay, and for Best International Feature.
Where to watch: In theaters
The Zone of Interest
Jonathan Glazer isn't a particularly prolific director, but his three earlier films (Sexy Beast (2000), Birth (2004), Under the Skin (2013)) are all acclaimed; even more important, they're all interesting. Here, he fearlessly examines the banality of evil by centering his Holocaust narrative on Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss (Christian Friedel) and his wife, Hedwig (Sandra Hüller), as they build a charmingly ordinary life in the shadow of the concentration camp. Hüller is also earning awards-season buzz for her work in Anatomy of a Fall, and this movie has already been submitted as Britain's entry for a potential Best International Picture nomination.
Where to watch: In theaters
The Color Purple
The second adaptation of Alice Walker's novel, following the 1985 Steven Spielberg version, is already earning buzz, even if it's not out until Christmas. Director Blitz Bazawule is getting high praise, as is Fantasia Barrino as Celie—a role that earned Whoopi Goldberg an Oscar nomination, and one that has earned Tonys for both LaChanze and Cynthia Erivo in the Broadway versions. If the buzz holds, The Color Purple could be a big favorite on Oscar night.
Where to watch: In theaters (soon)